Santa Cruz transport conditions Oct 5-6 strike on meeting with ministers as Morales' Decree 5716 deadline expiresIA · Claude · 3 Oct

⚖ RESOLUTION: Unresolved — Bolivia's Constitutional Court lacks quorum to rule on the conflict, leaving Decree 5515 in de facto effect even as regional prosecutors and officials publicly recognize Ávila.

⚖ RESOLUTION: Unresolved — the government's own explanation shifted over the crisis, and no single authoritative accounting of the shortage's causes has been published.

⚖ RESOLUTION: Unresolved — the arrest warrant remains outstanding; analysts (CSIS) describe Morales as having played a "key protagonist role" without concluding the movement was centrally directed by him.

⚖ RESOLUTION: Contested — no independent forensic audit of the full toll has been published; the hospital-shortage subset in particular remains disputed.

⚖ RESOLUTION: Unresolved — no independent verification of the flights' cargo or passenger manifests has surfaced publicly.

⚖ RESOLUTION: Contested — subsequent threats by transport workers, rural organizations, and market traders to resume blockades from October 2026 suggest the underlying grievances remain unresolved.

⚖ RESOLUTION: Contested and escalating — the cabinet formally approved Decree 5707 on Sep 14 extending the state of exception 90 more days, sending it to the Legislative Assembly, which VP Lara convened for a Sep 16 vote ahead of the Sep 18-19 expiration. COB called the extension "un atentado a la democracia"; the Morales-aligned CSUTCB declared "permanent mobilization" against it Sep 15, setting a Sep 26 national assembly to plan a response; and Jorge "Tuto" Quiroga argued the government should report the measure's results before seeking a new term. Presidential spokesperson José Luis Gálvez said Sep 16 the government could go further still and declare a state of siege, including possible curfews, if new blockades start — while Súmate and part of the PDC signaled likely support for the extension and Libre's vote remained conditional. No independent inquiry into use-of-force proportionality under the current state of exception has concluded.

⚖ RESOLUTION: Unresolved — no ballistic or forensic investigation results have been made public.

⚖ RESOLUTION: Unresolved — accounts of who escalated first diverge and no independent review has been published.

⚖ RESOLUTION: Contested — international reactions split along ideological lines, with no consensus characterization of the movement's nature.

⚖ RESOLUTION: Partially resolved toward sideB's warning — the deal received final congressional ratification Sep 18-19, 2026 (pending IMF Executive Board approval expected Oct 2), and President Paz eliminated the diesel subsidy the same week, prompting COB, the Confederación de Choferes, cisterneros and Yapacaní producers to reject the move and move toward mobilization. Whether this reignites blockade-level unrest remains unresolved.

⚖ RESOLUTION: Unresolved — the rate stabilized by mid-to-late July, but the cumulative effect on household purchasing power remains disputed.

⚖ RESOLUTION: Unresolved and escalating — Lara publicly broke with Paz on Sept 1, 2026, telling Argentine television that forensic analysis of Cerimedo's devices showed "sustained contact" with the men accused of shooting Beller and that he personally saw Cerimedo "give orders and instructions to the ministers." New photographs published by Beller the same day, showing Cerimedo at a desk inside the presidential headquarters and within Bolivia's official delegation at a March meeting with U.S. Secretary of State Marco Rubio, were cited as corroboration. Lara escalated further on Sept 1 with a criminal complaint against First Lady Urquidi and Cerimedo over the ouster of Police Commander Sokol, and on Sept 3 released a second purported audio of Paz and Cerimedo discussing a public "narrative" for the June 20 state-of-exception decree. Cerimedo denies giving orders to ministers or influencing government decisions, and Paz has declined to confirm or deny either recording's authenticity pending expert review. No independent forensic verification of Lara's claims has been published.

⚖ RESOLUTION: Resolved by repeal — Paz annulled the law on May 13, 2026 in response to the backlash, though the underlying land-tenure debate remains unsettled.

⚖ RESOLUTION: Unresolved — outcome depends on whether Congress passes the Investment Law and related reforms before October 2026.

⚖ RESOLUTION: Unresolved — Morales presented no independent evidence beyond an unrelated, confirmed meeting between Justiniano and U.S. officials at a Panama anti-cartel summit; no probe or corroboration has surfaced publicly, but cocalero federations have escalated with an armed vigil and a threat against security forces.

⚖ RESOLUTION: Unresolved but widening — prosecutors opened new money-laundering and narco-trafficking-protection investigations against Cerimedo on Aug 27, 2026, and a fourth person (ex-military officer Fritz Junior G.A.) was detained Aug 26 in a related illicit-enrichment case involving an alleged $500,000 cash exchange-house withdrawal. President Paz responded the same day by denying any formal contract or direct working relationship with Cerimedo, distancing the government from an adviser it had for months presented as a close campaign collaborator.

⚖ RESOLUTION: Unresolved — no public assessment of internal security-force cohesion during the crisis has been released.

⚖ RESOLUTION: Unresolved — both testified before Bolivian justice on Aug 24, 2026, and a detention ruling was pending as of that date.

⚖ RESOLUTION: Unresolved — no independent forensic confirmation that "ECG" is Erik Correa González has been published, and neither the intelligence chief nor the presidency has responded to the allegation as of Aug 26, 2026.

⚖ RESOLUTION: Unresolved but partially defused — the government preventively deployed military and police near Yapacaní, Santa Cruz on Aug 25 to head off blockades, but new roadblocks began in Beni and Oruro on Aug 26 anyway, the first blockade activity since all roads were cleared Jun 23. Rather than repeal the decree, the government placed state oil company YPFB under 180-day intervention (Decree 5697) on Sept 2 and issued Decree 5698 on Sept 1, raising the subsidized-diesel cap for small producers to 2,500 liters/month; that concession led San Julián and Cuatro Cañadas to lift their blockades Sept 3, though Yapacaní held out and thousands of cocaleros marched against the decree in Cochabamba on Sept 4. Decree 5676's original Bs. 18/liter large-consumer tier remains unrepealed.

⚖ RESOLUTION: Unresolved as a legal matter — Paz nonetheless complied and issued the dismissal decree on Aug 21, 2026, while the government's constitutional objection has not been ruled on by the Constitutional Tribunal. Interim minister Óscar Mario Justiniano's four-day tenure ended Aug 25, 2026 when Christian Morales Burgos was sworn in as permanent Economy Minister.

⚖ RESOLUTION: Unresolved — Lara's legal team requested forensic, acoustic and phonetic analysis to authenticate the recording; no independent verification or government confirmation had been published as of Sept 4, 2026.

⚖ RESOLUTION: Unresolved but widening — allegations rest on Beller's testimony to prosecutors, who expanded the case Sep 9 to add usurpation-of-functions and money-laundering charges against Cerimedo (his fourth concurrent case, alongside the Beni drug-trafficking-flights probe). Beller expanded her declaration Sep 9, additionally alleging Cerimedo "coordinated with law enforcement forces"; she and businessman Robin Jofré Azzarini were summoned Sep 12 as witnesses, with her testimony to be taken via advance-proof procedure in Santa Cruz for health reasons. None of these allegations have been tested in court or independently corroborated.

⚖ RESOLUTION: Unresolved — the Assembly approved the 90-day extension 100-58 on Sep 16-17, 2026 (122 deputies, 36 senators participating), with protesters gathering peacefully near Plaza Murillo and no blockades confirmed active at the time of the vote. COB and FENCOMIN have each announced an undated national assembly to plan their response, alongside the Morales-aligned CSUTCB's own Sep 26 assembly.

⚖ RESOLUTION: Unresolved and fast-moving — sugarcane growers, rice growers and valley producers around Montero (Santa Cruz), joined by the Bloque de Transporte Unidos, gave the government an ultimatum Sep 22 to repeal the decree or face road blockades, while El Alto's driver federation proposed an indefinite strike at its Sep 22 assembly and the national Confederación Sindical de Choferes de Bolivia (Lucio Gómez) formally called a 24-hour national stoppage for Mon, Sep 28, threatening to escalate to an indefinite general strike if unheard. Ministers of Hydrocarbons, the Presidency and Economy continue to say they remain open to dialogue with any sector that requests it.

⚖ RESOLUTION: Postponed, not defused — highways remained clear through Sep 22, with police and military still guarding Villa Remedios and the La Paz-Oruro, Oruro-Cochabamba and El Alto-Tiquina corridors, but El Alto's driver federation proposed an indefinite strike at its Tuesday assembly and the national Confederación Sindical de Choferes de Bolivia formally called a 24-hour national stoppage for Mon, Sep 28, warning it would escalate to an indefinite general strike if the government does not respond — meaning the underlying dispute over Decree 5716 remains unresolved, with a firm new deadline.

⚖ RESOLUTION: Unresolved — the Confederación proceeded with calling the Sep 28 national strike regardless of the government's statistic, and neither side has published a sector-by-sector breakdown reconciling diesel dependence with fare economics.