Caribbean Coral Reefs Collapsed Far Faster Than Models Predicted — New Study

A peer-reviewed study published in May 2026 found that the 2023–2024 marine heat wave — compounded by stony coral tissue loss disease — caused over 70% of Caribbean coral reefs to shift from net coral growth to net erosion. This tipping point was previously not expected to occur for decades under current climate projections, meaning the reefs collapsed years ahead of modeled timelines. The heat stress experienced by Caribbean reefs was 2–3 times higher than any previously recorded extreme. Fast-growing Acropora species suffered the most catastrophic losses, while Gulf of Mexico reefs — dominated by slower-growing, more heat-tolerant species — largely maintained structural stability. Researchers described the findings as a stark warning that climate models have been 'too optimistic' about reef resilience, and called for urgent acceleration of coral restoration and emissions reduction efforts. Scientists noted the Caribbean collapse is distinct from the global 4th bleaching event (2023–2025), which affected 84.4% of world reef area across 83 countries.