Trump Says Shifting Troops from Germany to Poland Is 'Possible' — NATO Allies Brace for Italy and Spain Drawdowns

On May 9, 2026, President Trump publicly stated that shifting the 5,000 US troops being withdrawn from Germany to Poland rather than returning them to the United States was 'possible' — adding 'Poland would like that. We have excellent relations with Poland... I might do it.' The statement came as a Bloomberg analysis published the same day reported that top diplomats from NATO allies told the outlet they forecast Trump will announce additional drawdowns beyond the Germany withdrawal, with Italy (~13,000 US personnel) and Spain (~3,500 at Naval Station Rota) seen as the next targets. Bloomberg's reporting confirmed that possible scenarios under internal Pentagon review include cancellation of US participation in European military exercises and redeployment of troops to more 'friendly' countries, with Poland explicitly cited. The troop level in such a scenario would return approximately to 2022 levels — prior to the post-Ukraine invasion surge. Congressional restrictions (NDAA §1249, which prohibits reducing personnel below 76,000 without authorization) and US strategic dependence on European bases are seen as limiting factors, but allied diplomats told Bloomberg they were not counting on those constraints holding. Poland's President Nawrocki reiterated Warsaw's readiness: 'We already have the infrastructure in place, and it is in the interests of Poland, Lithuania and the Baltic states for as many American troops as possible to be stationed here.' The Trump statement formalized what had been implicit in the 'coalition shuffle' dynamic — that the punitive Germany drawdown is not a general European withdrawal but a selective reorientation toward eastern allies who supported US Iran war operations.