SIPRI 2026: European Military Spending Surges 14% to $864B — Fastest Growth Since Cold War

The Stockholm International Peace Research Institute (SIPRI) released its 2026 global military spending report confirming that European military expenditure rose 14% in 2025 to $864 billion — the largest single-year percentage increase since the Cold War and one of the most consequential shifts in the global military balance in decades. All 32 NATO members now meet or exceed the 2% of GDP target for the second consecutive year, compared to just 3 members in 2014 when the Wales Pledge was adopted. A total of 22 of 29 European NATO members now spend 2% or above on defense. The surge reflects the cumulative effect of Germany's debt brake suspension (€500B fund), France's military programming law (€413B 2024–2030), Poland's sustained 4%+ spending, and the Baltic states' long-standing high-percentage commitments. SIPRI noted that the acceleration correlates directly with NATO allies' loss of confidence in automatic US Article 5 commitment: 'The fastest European rearmament in modern history is being driven not by Russian aggression alone, but by a fundamentally altered calculus about whether the US nuclear umbrella can be counted on.' The report confirmed the NATO 5% GDP target agreed at The Hague 2025 summit is now the political benchmark, though Spain, Belgium, and Italy remain furthest from achieving it. Global military spending reached a new all-time high of $2.72 trillion in 2025, driven by surges in Europe and Asia.