'Closer to a Break Than Ever': Analysts Ask Whether NATO Can Survive US Withdrawal

Al Jazeera published a major analytical piece on April 10 asking whether NATO can survive if Trump pulls the United States out. The article quoted former US deputy assistant secretary of defense Jim Townsend: 'We are closer to a break than we have ever been.' Former Italian ambassador and senior NATO official Stefano Stefanini assessed: 'He doesn't need to leave NATO to undermine it; by just saying he might, he has already eroded its credibility as an effective alliance.' German Chancellor Friedrich Merz characterized the dispute as a 'trans-Atlantic stress test.' European defense spending increased over 62 percent between 2020 and 2025, but experts estimated replacing US capabilities — deep-strike weapons, intelligence and surveillance, satellite technology, and integrated air defense — would cost approximately $1 trillion and take a decade. Trump called allied reluctance to join the Iran war 'a stain on the alliance that will never disappear.' Legal scholars broadly agree Trump cannot withdraw from NATO without the Senate — the Prohibiting American Withdrawal from NATO Act (2024) requires congressional approval — but he can hollow it out by refusing to honor Article 5, relocating the approximately 84,000 US troops in Europe, closing bases, and withdrawing from NATO command structures without requiring a Senate vote.