Expert Analysis: Iran War Will Weaken US Military Power for Years, Deepening NATO Rift

Strategic analysts and European defense officials circulated assessments warning that the US-Israel war against Iran — and the resulting European refusal to join a Strait of Hormuz coalition — is exposing a fundamental divergence in strategic priorities that could weaken US military power for years. The Soufan Center and Atlantic Council both published pieces framing the Iran conflict as the sharpest stress test yet for European strategic autonomy ambitions. European allies maintained their unified position: they would not deploy naval forces while active combat operations continued. Analysts noted the episode was accelerating EU SAFE instrument implementation and the ReArm Europe plan at unprecedented speed, driven directly by US unpredictability.