USMCA Renegotiation Uncertainty Deepens — Trump to Renegotiate, Not Just Review

US Commerce Secretary Howard Lutnick confirmed that the Trump administration intends to renegotiate USMCA rather than simply review it, introducing trade policy uncertainty through at least July 2026. Mexico remains exempt from the general 10% universal tariff applied to most countries, but Mexican goods not qualifying for USMCA origin rules face 25% tariffs. Mexico closed 2025 with a record trade surplus with the US — 20% larger than 2024 — adding political pressure to the trade relationship. The USMCA renegotiation outcome is now tightly linked to Mexico's security cooperation benchmarks on cartel interdiction and fentanyl trafficking.