U.S.-Mexico Fentanyl Interdiction Pressure Continues; CJNG Adapts Precursor Supply Chains

DEA and U.S. Customs and Border Protection (CBP) continue coordinating with Mexican authorities (SAT, SEDENA, and SEMAR) on fentanyl precursor interdiction at the Port of Manzanillo and Port of Lázaro Cárdenas — CJNG's two primary Pacific port gateways for Chinese-sourced chemical precursors. Post-Mencho disruption of CJNG's senior logistics tier (El Tuli killed February 22, El Pepe arrested March 16, 'Memo' arrested March 17) has created temporary inefficiencies in the cartel's precursor procurement chain. However, DEA intelligence assessments indicate CJNG's franchise-model structure at the port level — with embedded Aduana (customs) contacts and sub-contractor logistics cells — has allowed fentanyl operations to continue with minimal interruption. U.S. fentanyl overdose deaths declined to approximately 48,400 in 2024 (down from 76,200 in 2023), partially attributable to sustained interdiction efforts. The Biden-era and Trump-era sustained investment in the JITC-CC intelligence-sharing framework continues to yield operational results, though Congressional conditionality provisions on FY2026 Mexico counterfentanyl funding remain a point of diplomatic friction.