Day 60: ACLED 'After El Mencho' Webinar Held — First Major International Assessment of CJNG Succession Crisis

Day 60 since El Mencho's killing at Tapalpa, Jalisco (February 22, 2026). ACLED hosted 'After El Mencho: CJNG Succession Dynamics and the Future of Security in Mexico' at 10:00 a.m. Mexico City time today — the first major international analytical examination of post-Mencho CJNG dynamics. The live webinar featured ACLED Senior Analyst Sandra Pellegrini, InSight Crime World of Crime Director Chris Dalby, and InSight Crime Project Manager Victoria Dittmar. Conducted in Spanish with a 25-30 minute Q&A, the discussion examined four key dimensions: (1) SUCCESSION DYNAMICS — The fractura total between the El Jardinero/El Sapo faction vs. O3/Los Cuinis (Day 12, declared April 11) remains in a sustained dual-buildup phase with no confirmed direct inter-faction combat in the CJNG Jalisco heartland. O3 retains Grupo Élite paramilitary command and Los Cuinis financial infrastructure; El Jardinero controls multi-state plazas across Jalisco, Nayarit, Zacatecas, Michoacán, and Guerrero; El Sapo manages Puerto Vallarta port logistics and Chinese fentanyl precursor supply chains. Analysts examined whether the buildup phase will transition to sustained territorial combat in coming weeks. (2) CRIMINAL ECONOMIES — The evolution of CJNG's revenue streams in the post-Mencho era: fentanyl production and export, extortion across 27 states, port operations at Manzanillo and Lázaro Cárdenas, and timeshare fraud networks ($300M+). The fractura total is expected to disrupt transnational revenue flows as faction conflict intensifies. (3) INTERNAL COHESION — CJNG's franchise model and embedded institutional structures survived multiple near-decapitations including El Menchito's extradition. Structural resilience remains a key analytical variable as the fractura total develops. (4) FIFA WORLD CUP IMPLICATIONS — With 49 days to the June 11 opening match, Mexico's 100,000-person security deployment is under international scrutiny. Following the April 20 Teotihuacán shooting and the April 22 National Guard tourist-site surge, analysts assessed both CJNG-related and individual-actor security threats. The expanded tourist site security posture is additive to, not replacing, the anti-CJNG World Cup framework. Day 60 operational status: Operativo Enjambre cumulative total 80+ arrests; CJNG Cobra cell (Colima) dismantled April 15-18; Rancho Izaguirre forensic investigation ongoing; El 85 sentencing July 31, 2026. ACLED will post the webinar recording on YouTube with English subtitles.