political high confidence

Day 45: CJNG Co-founder El 85 Guilty Plea Closes Another U.S. Case; Succession Holds Under O3; Semana Santa Security Final Days

| CJNG Crisis

Day 45 since El Mencho's killing at Tapalpa, Jalisco (February 22, 2026). The April 7 guilty plea of CJNG co-founder Érick Valencia Salazar ('El 85') in U.S. federal court in Washington D.C. is being assessed for its impact on the post-Mencho succession. El 85 had broken from El Mencho after his 2012 arrest to found La Nueva Plaza — meaning his U.S. conviction removes a historical rival figure, not a succession contender, from the active picture. However, it closes a major chapter in the U.S. prosecution of CJNG's original founding generation and signals continued high-tempo U.S. legal pressure on the extended cartel network. O3 (Juan Carlos Valencia González, El Mencho's stepson) continues his succession consolidation under the collective council structure, backed by Grupo Élite's paramilitary capacity. El Jardinero (Audias Flores Silva) — the primary rival power center with a $5 million U.S. State Department bounty — remains at large with no confirmed change in status. Operativo Semana Santa Segura 2026 enters its final days (active through April 12), with 10,000+ security personnel deployed across CJNG-held Jalisco, Michoacán, Colima, and Nayarit — running in parallel with World Cup security buildup. No major cartel incidents reported during the Semana Santa period. Operativo Enjambre cumulative total holds at 67+ officials detained.

  • T1 U.S. Department of Justice Official western
  • T1 SEDENA / SSPC Official western
  • T2 Washington Post Major western
  • T3 InSight Crime Institutional international