HSToday Analysis: Post-El Mencho CJNG Crisis Tests U.S.-Mexico Security Cooperation Framework

Homeland Security Today published a policy analysis examining how El Mencho's death and the subsequent CJNG succession crisis are testing the U.S.-Mexico security cooperation framework. The analysis highlights that the February 22 operation relied on intelligence from the U.S. Joint Interagency Task Force-Counter Cartel (JITC-CC), which mapped cartel presence and provided real-time tracking of CJNG movements ahead of the Tapalpa raid. Despite the tactical success, analysts warn that sustained strategic progress requires Mexico to 'take and hold territory formerly ruled by armed groups' rather than conducting decapitation operations. The Trump administration's threats of missile strikes against cartel positions and the FTO designation of CJNG create friction with Mexico's sovereignty concerns even as intelligence cooperation deepens. President Sheinbaum's government, particularly Security Secretary Omar García Harfuch, is navigating the pressure to demonstrate continued operational tempo while resisting direct U.S. military intervention.