Iraq Faces 'Sovereignty Test' as Coalition Withdrawal and Militia Disarmament Deadlines Converge

With the US-led anti-ISIS coalition mission set to end September 30, Lt Gen Abdul Amir al-Shammari (Director, Office of the Commander-in-Chief) said the date is 'fixed and irreversible,' while the Prime Minister's Office framed October 1 as the start of 'a new day in the trajectory of the Iraqi state,' free of any foreign military presence for the first time since 2003. Remaining US forces have already consolidated out of dispersed bases into the Harir base near Erbil ahead of the pullout. Analysts quoted by Al Jazeera were skeptical the exit changes much on the ground: University of Baghdad political scientist Iyad al-Anbar called the departure 'almost agreed upon' and largely symbolic given the US presence was already minimal, while University of Jordan international relations professor Hassan al-Barari warned 'it is unlikely that the Iraqi state is currently capable of defending its skies' against Iranian missiles and drones once coalition air-defense cover departs alongside it — tying the withdrawal directly to the unresolved militia disarmament standoff.