Iraq Situation Report: PMF Disarmament Split, Partial Cabinet, and Ceyhan Pipeline Recovery — June 7, 2026

As of June 7, 2026, Iraq's political and security landscape is defined by three converging crises under PM Ali al-Zaidi's government: (1) CABINET: Three weeks after formation, the government remains partial with Defense and Interior — the two 'sovereign ministries' — still vacant and held by Zaidi in an acting capacity. Parliamentary negotiations over the remaining nine portfolios are ongoing, complicated by Iran-aligned factions conditioning participation on security sector control commitments. The Trump administration has warned it will not engage Baghdad if Iran-backed terror affiliates hold cabinet posts, creating a structural standoff. (2) PMF DISARMAMENT SPLIT: The PMF has fractured into two distinct blocs. Compliant factions (Sadr's Saraya al-Salam, Asaib Ahl al-Haq, Kataib al-Imam Ali) have pledged weapons transfer to state authority and integration into the Iraqi military. Hardline factions (Kataib Hezbollah, Harakat Hezbollah al-Nujaba) have refused, demanding full US withdrawal by September 2026 before any disarmament consideration. The Iraqi government formed a committee to manage integration from compliant factions. The Soufan Center assesses the process could stall since refusing groups hold greater military capacity. (3) OIL AND ECONOMY: Iraq's cabinet approved a plan to triple Kirkuk-Ceyhan pipeline throughput to 770,000 bpd by late August, an important step in the Hormuz bypass strategy. Total production remains ~1.5 million bpd (66% below pre-Hormuz levels). The Baghdad-Erbil gas contract dispute remains unresolved: Baghdad's lawsuit against HKN Energy and WesternZagros is pending, and Kurdistan's budget is still frozen. Iraq's Q1 2026 budget recorded a 660-billion-dinar deficit (~$510 million), with oil revenues at 84% of total government revenues but down sharply from pre-crisis levels.