Analysis: Iraq Oil Shipments Through Hormuz Unlikely to Recover Until Late 2026 Despite Ceasefire

An Eurasia Review analysis published May 13 concluded that, despite Iran declaring the Strait of Hormuz nominally open in April following the US-Iran ceasefire, ship traffic remained far below pre-war levels through mid-May 2026. Iraq held approximately 17 million barrels in onshore storage and an estimated 20+ million barrels in floating Gulf storage awaiting viable transit. Insurance premiums for tankers transiting the Strait remained at 4-5 times pre-crisis rates as underwriters cited continuing risk from Iranian naval presence and unresolved maritime security protocols. The analysis concluded full Iraqi oil export recovery was not expected until late 2026, and that the government's $74 billion 2026 federal budget was severely underfunded due to the oil revenue shortfall. Separately, analysts noted that Iran continued to collect 'passage fees' of $1–2 million per vessel, effectively turning the Strait into a toll road.