Iraq Oil Output at 1.5M bpd as Hormuz Crisis Enters Third Month — Full Recovery Months Away

As of May 9, Iraq's crude oil production had partially recovered to approximately 1.5 million barrels per day (bpd), up from the ~800,000 bpd trough in March but still 66 percent below the pre-crisis level of 4.4 million bpd. The State Oil Marketing Organization (SOMO) reported that approximately 20 million barrels remained in floating storage in the Gulf awaiting safe passage through the Strait of Hormuz. Iraq's oil ministry indicated the Basra-Haditha pipeline groundbreaking on May 1 was on schedule, with Chinese construction partners mobilizing equipment at both ends of the 700km route. Despite Iran's April declaration that the Strait was 'open,' shipping insurance rates remained prohibitively high for most tanker operators, keeping effective passage well below pre-war levels. The World Bank estimated Iraq had lost approximately $4 billion in oil revenues per month since the Hormuz crisis began in late February.