Iran Signals Hormuz Shipping to Return to Pre-War Levels Within 30 Days of Deal Signing; Oil Falls Sharply on Deal Optimism — Day 86

Iran officially signaled on May 24, 2026 (Day 86) that shipping through the Strait of Hormuz is expected to return to pre-war levels within 30 days contingent on a peace deal being signed and implemented — the most concrete Iranian timeline for Hormuz normalization since the IRGC's formal control zone was established May 4. The signal marks a shift from Iran's previous posture of treating Hormuz tolling as a permanent strategic asset. Oil markets responded sharply: Brent crude fell to approximately $96/barrel (down ~7% from the May 22 ~$103 level) and WTI dropped toward $88/barrel on compounding deal optimism from Trump's 'largely negotiated' claim and Axios's nuclear deal details. The cumulative weekly oil price decline represents one of the largest since the conflict began February 28. The Hormuz 30-day normalization timeline, if real, would require: abolition of the IRGC's $1M+ per-vessel transit fees, ending of the formal IRGC maritime control zone (established May 4), and US/allied lifting of the dual blockade of Iranian ports. An estimated 1,550+ vessels with ~22,500 mariners remain effectively stranded in the Persian Gulf as of Day 86.