Brent Crude Falls ~5% to ~$103/bbl on US-Iran Deal Optimism — Markets Rally ~$500B; Oil Remains Well Above Pre-War $77 — Day 84

Brent crude fell to approximately $103.82/barrel on May 22, 2026 (Day 84) — down approximately 5% for the week — as the Al Arabiya draft deal leak and Rubio's 'good signs' statement fueled optimism that a comprehensive US-Iran peace framework could be announced imminently. WTI settled near $97/barrel. US equity markets surged approximately $500 billion in market capitalization on the deal optimism. The oil price decline on Day 84 represents the largest single-week drop since the conflict began February 28, though Brent at $103.82 remains 33% above the pre-war February 27 baseline of $77.74/bbl. CNBC reported Trump explicitly raised the Hormuz 'open and free' demand on Day 84 as a non-negotiable condition for any final agreement, suggesting even after a deal the Hormuz reopening timetable and toll-abolition timeline remain unresolved. The IEA's 400M barrel strategic reserve release — the largest in history — announced in March has partially offset some supply pressure, but the agency previously declared the conflict represents 'the largest supply disruption in the history of the global oil market' (3.9M bpd deficit). A full Hormuz reopening and lifting of the dual blockade would be required before oil prices normalize toward pre-war levels.