IEA: Iran War Has Created 'Largest Supply Disruption in History of Global Oil Market' — 3.9M bpd Deficit; Steepest Draws in May–June; Day 81

The International Energy Agency (IEA) announced on or around May 19, 2026 (Day 81) that the Iran conflict had created the 'largest supply disruption in the history of the global oil market,' with global oil supply projected to fall 3.9 million barrels per day across 2026. The IEA projection — its starkest assessment since the conflict began February 28 — reflects the combined impact of: the Strait of Hormuz blockade (approximately 5% of pre-conflict traffic, with 1,550+ vessels stranded and ~22,500 mariners trapped); Iran's own production offline (~4 million bpd removed from global supply); Iraq's oil production down over 70% in southern fields; Gulf port capacity at half; and Qatar LNG force majeure continuing. The steepest global inventory draws are projected for May–June 2026, coinciding with Day 81's diplomatic brinkmanship. UBS had previously projected potential oil stockpile depletion by end of May; JPMorgan projected critical stockpile levels by September. Brent crude was trading at approximately $105–108/bbl on Day 81, down slightly from the Trump 'bombs' threat peak on Day 80, as the Gulf states' successful intervention to defer the US strike provided a brief risk-off signal. However, the underlying supply deficit continues to build with no resolution in sight on the Hormuz blockade. The IEA's 'largest in history' designation surpasses the 1973 Arab oil embargo, the 1979 Iranian Revolution supply shock, and the 1990 Gulf War disruption — placing the 2026 Iran war in a category with no historical precedent for the global oil market.