Oil Surges on Deal Collapse Fears — Brent Rises to ~$103.93/bbl, WTI Tops $105; US Gas Average Climbs to $4.52/gal — Day 73

Brent crude rose to approximately $103.93 per barrel on May 11, 2026 (Day 73) — up approximately 2–3% from the ~$101 level of May 8–9 — as markets rapidly repriced the probability of a near-term US-Iran deal following Trump's 'TOTALLY UNACCEPTABLE' rejection of the Iranian counter-proposal on May 10. WTI crude surged past $105 per barrel for the first time since May 4–5. OilPrice.com headlined the move as 'Oil Prices Surge After Trump Rejects Iran Peace Offer.' Market confidence in a near-term reopening of the Strait of Hormuz — which had been building over the prior week on MOU optimism — collapsed. The US national average gasoline price climbed to approximately $4.52 per gallon (AAA), up from $4.45 on May 6. The IEA's running estimate of approximately 14 million barrels per day of supply disruption remained unchanged. CNBC reported that Kalshi prediction market odds for a US-Iran deal by 2027 fell sharply, reversing the optimism of the prior two weeks. With both the diplomatic and energy trajectories now pointing in opposite directions, analysts warned that Brent could retest the $110–115 range if negotiations remained stalled for another week.