Brent Crude Falls to ~$101/bbl — Weekly Drop of ~7% on Ceasefire Affirmations and Deal Optimism; US Gas Near $4.45/gal — Day 71

Brent crude fell to approximately $101.29 per barrel by close of trading on May 8, 2026, representing a weekly drop of approximately 7% from the May 4 peak of $114.4/bbl. WTI crude fell below $95 per barrel in the same period. The price decline reflected markets pricing in a growing probability of a US-Iran deal, driven by Trump affirming the ceasefire remained in effect, Pakistan's reports of 'advanced stage' MOU negotiations, and the IRGC's announcement of limited Hormuz passage for registering vessels. Kalshi prediction markets showed rising odds of a US-Iran nuclear deal by 2027. Euronews reported oil briefly dipped below $100/bbl on deal hopes during the week before recovering. However, markets remained highly volatile: Iran's failure to deliver its MOU response by Rubio's May 8 deadline, ongoing overnight Hormuz clashes, and the UAE missile barrage had repeatedly pushed prices back up through the week. The IEA confirmed approximately 14 million barrels per day of supply disruption remained ongoing. US national gas price average remained near $4.45 per gallon — a conflict record — with California above $5.87/gallon. NBC News analysts warned the strait 'will take a long time to reboot' even after any deal, adding to uncertainty about the full recovery timeline for global energy markets.