Iran's Formal Response to US MOU Awaited — Rubio Expected Reply by May 8; Iran's Parliament Hostile; Deal Odds Rising on Markets — Day 70

The central diplomatic development on May 8, 2026 — Day 70 — was the continued waiting for Iran's formal response to the US memorandum of understanding (MOU) framework. Rubio had expected Iran's reply by the end of May 8. Araghchi confirmed Iran was 'finalising its views' but had not yet delivered a response. CNN's live blog captured US officials saying they hoped for a 'serious offer from Iran.' Kalshi prediction markets showed rising odds — tracked by CNBC — that a US-Iran nuclear deal would be reached by 2027, reflecting growing market optimism about the MOU framework. Iran's parliament remained openly hostile: the Speaker Ghalibaf mocked the process, and a parliamentary spokesperson called the US framework 'more of an American wish-list than a reality.' Iran's core sticking point was Hormuz sequencing and sovereignty — Tehran insisted the strait's blockade must be lifted first, before any nuclear commitments, while Rubio had explicitly stated the US 'cannot accept paying a toll or coordinating with Iran' for Hormuz passage. Chinese banking regulators separately advised major banks to halt new loans to US-sanctioned Iranian-linked refineries — adding pressure on Iran's economy. The MOU's notable omissions (ballistic missiles, proxy networks) and Iran's insistence on reparations remained the principal gaps.