diplomatic high confidence

Iran Threatens to Close Bab al-Mandeb Strait, Targeting Red Sea–Suez Canal Trade Route

| Iran Conflict

Iran escalated its maritime pressure campaign by threatening to close the Bab al-Mandeb strait in addition to the Strait of Hormuz, raising global alarm over the impact on international trade. The Bab al-Mandeb, connecting the Red Sea to the Gulf of Aden, is one of the world's most critical shipping chokepoints — roughly 10–15% of global trade, including significant volumes of oil and LNG, transits the corridor annually before reaching the Suez Canal. A closure would force vessels to reroute around the Cape of Good Hope, adding weeks and thousands of miles to voyages and sharply increasing shipping costs. Iran's dual chokepoint threat signals an intent to weaponize maritime geography to impose maximum economic pain on Western nations and their allies, and represents a significant expansion of its coercive toolkit beyond the Persian Gulf theater.