IEA Chief: April Oil Supply Crunch Will Be 'Much Worse Than March' — $200/bbl Risk

IEA Executive Director Fatih Birol warned on April 1 that April's oil supply crunch will be 'much worse than March' as strategic petroleum reserve releases and exempted Russian/Iranian oil flows approach exhaustion by mid-April. The 'April oil cliff' described by multiple analysts refers to the expiration of approximately 400 million barrels in cumulative SPR releases globally. Axios reported Macquarie estimates a 40% probability of Brent reaching $200/barrel; Eurasia Group gives a 55% probability the war continues through May. CNBC reported oil supply impact is now the single largest shock in modern history as a share of global supply. The Trump hard deadline for full Hormuz reopening remains April 6. Brent crude was trading around $110/bbl as of April 1 with continued volatility.