Analysts Warn of 'April Oil Cliff' — Global Buffer Reserves Expiring by Mid-April

Multiple major energy research firms issued warnings on March 30 that the buffer from strategic petroleum reserve releases, Russian oil, and Iranian sanctions-exempt flows will run out by mid-April — creating an 'April oil cliff.' BCA Research's Marko Papic warned the supply loss will 'double by mid-April, becoming the largest loss of crude supply' in modern history, with few government levers remaining. Rystad Energy stated the global system has shifted 'from buffered to fragile.' Goldman Sachs described the disruption as 'the largest shock in decades when measured as a share of global supply.' The IEA called it 'the biggest oil shock in history' — approximately 17.8–20 million barrels per day disrupted, with approximately 500 million barrels total lost since February 28. Brent crude hovered near $115/barrel as of March 30. April 6 remains the Trump hard deadline for full Hormuz reopening.