Bloomberg Warns Prabowo's Indonesia 'Teetering Toward a Familiar Disaster'

A major Bloomberg opinion piece warns that Prabowo Subianto's Indonesia is exhibiting early warning signs reminiscent of the pre-1997 Asian financial crisis: a weakening rupiah, rising public debt, and political dynamics suppressing accountability. GDP growth has slowed to a 4.7% 2026 forecast from 5.1% projected for 2025, reflecting headwinds from US tariff volatility. The Nusantara capital project's 2026 budget has been slashed to Rp 6.3 trillion (less than half of 2025's Rp 13 trillion), while Prabowo's free school meals program continues to draw from a constrained national budget. Military law amendments allowing soldiers into civilian posts, a new criminal code that criminalizes press criticism, and the expansion of Prabowo's inner circle with military allies have prompted governance concerns. Indonesia holds the 2026 UN Human Rights Council presidency — a role observers note creates reputational tension given domestic backsliding.