diplomatic high confidence

Day 380: Ceasefire Holds as India's Airspace NOTAM Expires — Back-Channel Talks Signal Quiet Diplomatic Track

| India-Pakistan

May 25, 2026 marks Day 380 of the India-Pakistan ceasefire established on May 10, 2025. India's most recent NOTAM banning Pakistani aircraft from Indian airspace reached its May 24 expiry date without a formal public announcement of renewal, leaving the bilateral airspace arrangement in a state of de facto ambiguity. Pakistan's reciprocal ban on Indian aircraft — extended via NOTAM on May 19, 2026 — remains in force through June 23/24, 2026, marking the sixth consecutive extension since the post-Pahalgam airspace closures began in April 2025. The combined airspace restrictions have cost Indian carriers over $600 million in rerouting costs since April 2025 and denied Pakistani aviation trans-India overfly revenues. The Al Jazeera investigative report published May 23 revealing four back-channel India-Pakistan meetings since the ceasefire — in London (July 2025), Muscat (October 2025), Bangkok/Thailand, and Doha (February 2026) — continues to generate strategic discussion in both countries. Former Pakistani diplomat Jauhar Saleem confirmed the meetings 'helped carry forward informal dialogue on a range of issues.' No official Indian response had been issued as of May 25; Pakistan's Foreign Ministry spokesperson noted Islamabad would 'wait to see if India made an official reaction.' The Line of Control remains quiet at Day 380, with no ceasefire violations reported since May 10, 2025. The full bilateral freeze continues: no ambassadors, $0 formal trade, Indus Waters Treaty suspended since April 2025 and legally contested following India's May 16–17 rejection of the Permanent Court of Arbitration's May 15 supplemental award as 'null and void.' India's MEA reiterated that the IWT will remain in abeyance until Pakistan takes 'credible and irreversible steps to end support for terrorism.'

Day 380: India-Pakistan ceasefire holds; airspace status uncertain after India's NOTAM expiry on May 24 as Pakistan's ban runs to June 23/24
Day 380: India-Pakistan ceasefire holds; airspace status uncertain after India's NOTAM expiry on May 24 as Pakistan's ban runs to June 23/24 — Reuters / Al Jazeera