Middle East Crude Exports Surpass Pre-War Levels Even as Tanker Attacks Continue Rising

Middle East crude oil exports have recovered to exceed pre-war levels, signaling a partial normalization of supply chains. However, tanker attacks in and around the Strait of Hormuz continue to rise, presenting a dual-trend dynamic: supply volumes are recovering while maritime security risks remain elevated. Analysts note the divergence underscores the resilience of alternative routing options and increased naval escorts, but warn that sustained attack escalation could reverse the export recovery if insurers withdraw coverage or shippers divert to longer routes.