Iran Blockade Capability Assessed as Weakening; Hormuz Crude Exports Recover to ~80% of Pre-Crisis Levels

Iran's ability to sustain its Strait of Hormuz blockade was assessed as weakening on September 29, with Middle East crude exports recovering to approximately 80% of pre-conflict levels — up from the ~72% baseline reported as recently as September 28. The incremental rebound reflects continued US Navy passage-protection operations and growing pressure on Iran's interdiction resources, which US officials have characterised as increasingly 'exhausted.' The 80% recovery mark, if sustained, would represent the highest export restoration since the onset of the crisis.