ACLED: Gang Violence Spreads to New Departments — Record 38 Killed in Sud-Est; 'Balloon Effect' Threatens Regions Without GSF Coverage

ACLED's May 2026 Latin America and Caribbean overview documented a significant geographic expansion of gang violence beyond Port-au-Prince and Artibonite into historically low-violence departments. In the Sud-Est department, ACLED recorded at least 38 deaths through May 2026 — a record high for the region — as suspected Viv Ansanm-affiliated groups targeted localities including Macary and Seguin, attacked a police station, and clashed with security forces. This builds on the April 13–14 Seguin/Marigot attack that killed at least 7–8 and displaced 4,000+ — the first large-scale gang-driven displacement recorded in the historically quiet Sud-Est department. ACLED analysts noted that the spread of violence to new departments appears linked to a 'balloon effect': as GSF and HNP operations disrupt established gang revenue networks in Port-au-Prince's city center, gang factions expand into areas of weaker institutional presence to establish new extortion zones. The GSF's ~800-person advance force (400+ Chadian, 75 Guatemalan, 70 Salvadoran) remained entirely concentrated in Port-au-Prince's city center throughout the May period — leaving Cap-Haïtien, the Artibonite, Centre, Sud-Est, and Grand'Anse without any international security coverage. The balloon effect represents a structural challenge for the phased GSF deployment strategy, which does not plan to reach its full 5,500-person authorized ceiling until fall–end 2026. Sud-Est, including Jacmel — which shut down in protest on April 15–16 — and its surrounding communities now represent a new security front for an already overstretched response.