OECD Raises 2026 Global Growth Forecast to 2.9%, Says World Economy Absorbed Middle East Energy Shock Better Than Expected

The OECD's September Interim Economic Outlook raised its 2026 global GDP growth projection to 2.9% (up 0.1 point from June) and forecast 3.0% for 2027, concluding the world economy 'has weathered the energy supply shock triggered by the conflict in the Middle East better than expected' thanks to government support measures, alternative energy supply from outside the Gulf, drawdowns of oil reserves, and continued AI-driven investment. Country-level detail: US growth was revised up 0.2 points to 2.2%, the eurozone up 0.2 points to 1.0%, and China held steady at 4.5%; G20 headline inflation is projected at 4.1% for the year. OECD Secretary-General Mathias Cormann and Chief Economist Stefano Scarpetta, presenting the outlook, flagged three key downside risks: a prolonged Middle East conflict, weather-related supply shocks from a strong El Niño, and AI investment returns that fail to meet expectations — plus rising long-term sovereign bond yields straining public finances in heavily indebted economies.