10-Year Treasury Tops 4.9% Cycle High as Oil Surges Past $105, Highest in Nearly Four Months; Stocks Fall a Fifth Day

The 10-year Treasury yield climbed to roughly 4.97% on September 10 — its firmest level since October 2023 — as oil prices topped $100 a barrel on fears of a prolonged US-Iran conflict, with Brent crude touching $105-107/bbl (WTI near $100) by mid-morning, the highest in nearly four months, and diesel hitting a record $5.94/gallon. The move followed Wednesday's hotter-than-expected August PPI print, which showed wholesale energy costs accelerating on the same Gulf-conflict oil shock. US equities extended their losing streak to a fifth session: the S&P 500 fell roughly 0.6% to about 7,592, the Dow eased about 0.6% to roughly 52,064, and the Nasdaq lost about 0.65% to around 26,082, as investors rotated out of duration-sensitive shares ahead of Friday's CPI print. The synchronized rise in yields and oil left markets pricing close to a 70% probability of a 25bp Fed hike at the September 15-16 FOMC meeting going into the CPI release.