economic high confidence

China's August Manufacturing PMI Improves to 49.8 (Still Contracting) as G20 Finance Ministers Open Asheville Summit

| Recession Risk

China's official manufacturing PMI rose to 49.8 in August, up 0.6 points from July's 49.2 and above the roughly 49.7 forecast — its second straight monthly improvement but still below the 50-point expansion threshold, extending the sector's contraction streak. The non-manufacturing PMI held flat at 49.0 (vs 49.5 expected) and the composite PMI rose to 49.5 from 49.3, with sub-indices showing production and new orders returning to expansion (50.4 and 50.6 respectively) and new export orders rebounding to 50.1 from 49.6 — a tentative sign of stabilizing external demand even as the broader economy remains soft. The same day, the G20 Finance Ministers and Central Bank Governors meeting opened in Asheville, North Carolina, with Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent and Fed Chair Kevin Warsh addressing global growth. Warsh, fresh off his hawkish Jackson Hole keynote, told G20 finance leaders the world is in the midst of 'a global investment surge' reversing the prior decade's savings glut, dismissed secular-stagnation concerns, and said the Fed would have 'more work to do' absent more confidence inflation is heading to 2%. Bessent separately dismissed concerns about Treasury market health or the US national debt — which surpassed $40 trillion in August — attributing higher yields partly to stronger growth.

Fed Chair Kevin Warsh told G20 finance ministers in Asheville the world is in a global investment surge, as China's factory PMI edged up to 49.8 but stayed in contraction
Fed Chair Kevin Warsh told G20 finance ministers in Asheville the world is in a global investment surge, as China's factory PMI edged up to 49.8 but stayed in contraction — AOL / Reuters