S&P 500 Closes H1 2026 +9.6%, Best First Half Since 2020 Despite War and Rate Shocks

The S&P 500 closed the first half of 2026 up 9.6%, the Nasdaq up 12.8%, and the Russell 2000 up roughly 22% — the small-cap index's best first half since 1991. The S&P notched 24 record closes and the Nasdaq 20 through the first half, despite the Iran war, the Section 122 tariff turmoil, and the June triple-central-bank-hike week. Brent crude, which peaked near $118 in April at the height of the war, traded near $73/barrel in early July — down roughly 40% from the war peak — as Morgan Stanley cut its Brent forecast to $90 for Q3 and $80 for Q4.