Warsh's First FOMC Holds Rate at 3.50–3.75%; Hawkish Dot Plot Shows Median Hike, Not Cut

The FOMC under new Chair Kevin Warsh unanimously held the federal funds rate at 3.50-3.75% in his first meeting as Chair. The accompanying Summary of Economic Projections turned notably hawkish: the 2026 median dot rose to 3.8% from 3.4% in the March projections — implying a hike rather than a cut — with 9 of 18 members projecting at least one 2026 hike (6 of those projecting two or more). The Committee's 2026 PCE inflation forecast was raised to 3.6% from 2.7%. Warsh declined to submit his own dot, telling reporters he found the tool 'inconsistent with his views' on communicating policy intentions. The post-meeting statement was cut to roughly 130 words, down from 341 words in April — a marked change in Fed communication style under the new chair.