US 10Y Treasury Closes Week at 4.59% — Highest Since May 2025; Brent Crude at $111/bbl; Gold at $4,548/oz After Summit Week

The week of May 12–16, 2026 concluded with a significant reassessment of the macro backdrop, reflected across major asset classes. **US 10-Year Treasury Yield:** - **Weekly close: ~4.59%** — the highest yield since approximately May 2025 - **Week's move:** Opened at ~4.32% (May 8 close post-jobs report); surged +27 bps over the week on: - April CPI 3.8% (May 12): +8–10 bps repricing - April PPI +6.0% (May 13): +8–10 bps continuation - Trump-Xi summit 'meagre' outcomes (May 15): yield held above 4.5% — bond market NOT relieved by summit - Warsh officially assumes Fed Chair (May 15): no bullish bond reaction - **Implication:** Markets are pricing out any 2026 rate cuts and beginning to price in a possible 2026 or early 2027 rate hike. BofA estimates >50% probability of at least one rate hike by March 2027. **Brent Crude Oil:** - **~$111/bbl** on May 15 close (IEA: Hormuz shipping at ~9% of normal, 10.1 mbpd disrupted) - The week's range: ~$100–114 as ceasefire talks advanced and then stalled post-summit - Summit outcome: Trump 'did not ask Xi for help' with Iran/Hormuz — energy shock remains fully embedded - IEA warning: even if fighting stops next month, market could remain severely undersupplied until at least October 2026 - **Weekly gain: +8.1%** — one of the largest weekly oil price gains of 2026 **Gold:** - **$4,547.89/oz** on May 15 close — down 2.22% on the day and ~4% for the week - Gold selling driven by rate hike fears: higher yields reduce gold's opportunity cost - Despite the weekly decline, gold is still up ~42% year-over-year - JPMorgan forecasts gold will average $5,055/oz in Q4 2026 — targeting the secular safe-haven trend to resume as stagflation concerns deepen - Note: January 29, 2026 all-time high was $5,595/oz — gold is ~19% below its peak **Equity Market Summary (May 15 close, most recent session):** - S&P 500: **7,408.50** (-1.24% on May 15; -0.7% for the week from May 14 ATH close) - Nasdaq: **26,225.14** (-1.54% on May 15; tech-led selloff on chip ambiguity and rising yields) - Dow Jones: **49,526.17** (-537 pts on May 15; below 50,000 again) - JPMorgan revised 2026 S&P 500 target to **7,200** — implying ~2.8% downside from May 15 close - **Key tech movers on May 15:** Intel -6.0%, AMD -5.7%, Micron -6.6%, Nvidia -4.4% **Week-Ahead Watch (May 18–22):** - Warsh's first week of informal Fed communication (no FOMC until June 16-17) - April housing starts and building permits (scheduled May 21) - Flash PMIs (May 22) — first read on May 2026 business conditions - Section 122 tariff cliff countdown: 66 days