Strait of Hormuz Shipping at ~9% of Pre-War Volume — 12 Crossings vs 129/Day Average; EIA Confirms Largest Oil Supply Shock Since 1973

The Strait of Hormuz oil supply crisis deepened as of May 2, 2026, with the Energy Information Administration confirming conditions that now rival and potentially exceed the 1973 Arab oil embargo in magnitude. **Shipping traffic collapse (May 2 data):** - **12 total vessel crossings** through the Strait on May 2 (5 inbound, 7 outbound) - Pre-war daily average: **129 crossings** per day - Current utilization: approximately **9% of pre-war volume** — a near-complete collapse of commercial shipping through the world's most critical oil chokepoint - The Strait handles approximately 20% of global oil flows and 18% of global LNG supplies under normal conditions **IEA / EIA supply shock assessment:** - The International Energy Agency has confirmed that March 2026 saw **10.1 million barrels per day (mbpd) disrupted** from normal flow — the largest single oil supply shock in recorded history, exceeding the 1973 Arab oil embargo (5.0 mbpd disrupted) - The 10.1 mbpd disruption represents approximately 10% of total global daily oil consumption (~100 mbpd) - Brent crude closed at approximately **$114-116/barrel** on April 30–May 2; WTI at **~$103-105/barrel** **Economic cascade effects:** - US PCE headline inflation re-accelerated to 3.5% YoY (March 2026, released April 30) — the Iran war energy shock is the primary driver of the difference between 3.5% headline and 3.2% core PCE - Eurozone April CPI flash surged to 3.0% from 2.3% — Iran war energy primary driver - UK CPI: 3.3% (March 2026); BOE April 30 hold decision cited energy uncertainty as key factor **Exxon CEO warning:** Exxon Mobil CEO Darren Woods stated (May 1) that 'markets have not yet fully absorbed the impact of this unprecedented supply disruption' and that further Brent price appreciation to $130-140 was possible if commercial shipping remained at current levels through Q3 2026.