FOMC Holds; SEP Projects 1.4% US GDP for 2025

The FOMC held rates at 4.25–4.50%. The June SEP (Summary of Economic Projections) marked a sharp downgrade: US GDP projected at 1.4% for 2025 (vs 2.1% in March), unemployment projected at 4.5%, PCE inflation at 3.0%, and core PCE at 3.1%. The Fed funds rate median end-2025 projection was 3.9% — implying two cuts. The majority of members saw some rate reductions as appropriate in 2025.