IMF Slashes Global Forecast: 'Effective Tariff Rates Not Seen in a Century'

The IMF's April 2025 World Economic Outlook cut global growth forecasts to 2.8% (2025) and 3.0% (2026), down from 3.3% and 3.3% in January. US growth was slashed to 1.8% for 2025; China to 4.0%. IMF Chief Economist Pierre-Olivier Gourinchas warned of 'effective tariff rates not seen in a century' and the risk of a synchronous global slowdown, particularly if the tariff pause expired without deals.