Government Slashes 2026 Growth Forecast to 0.5%, Admits Deficit Will Overshoot 5% of GDP

Economy Minister Roland Lescure told a press conference — billed as 'act 1' of the budget sequence ahead of the 2027 budget bill's presentation on September 30 — that France's public deficit will come in 'above 5%' of GDP in 2026, missing the government's own 5% target, after posting 5.1% in 2025. He also cut the official 2026 growth forecast to 0.5%, down from 0.7% and the third downward revision in six months, citing geopolitical tensions, climate-related costs, and disruption from the Strait of Hormuz closure. Lescure said a rebound to around 1% growth is expected in 2027, but the miss sets up difficult tax and pension choices in the upcoming budget fight.