Africa CDC Scientific Review Says Data Cannot Confirm DRC Ebola Outbreak Has Peaked

Africa CDC's Emergency Consultative Group (ECG) — an independent panel of scientists — completed a review of the DRC Ebola response Thursday, 17 September 2026, four months after the outbreak was designated a Public Health Emergency of Continental Security. The ECG said the evidence supports 'cautious optimism,' citing declining cases and deaths in some hotspots including Ituri, but stressed the picture remains heterogeneous, with continued increases in North Kivu, and concluded 'the available data do not yet confirm that the outbreak has reached its peak.' ECG chair Prof. Salim Abdool Karim said: 'The evidence gives us grounds for cautious optimism, but it does not yet show consistent control across all affected areas.' Africa CDC Director-General Dr. Jean Kaseya said the priority is to 'maintain the PHECS, consolidate the gains and close the gaps that continue to cost lives,' noting roughly 60% of reported deaths are still occurring in communities rather than health facilities — a proxy for gaps in case detection and treatment access — and that high reported contact-tracing percentages may be masking weaknesses in initial contact identification. The ECG's seven recommendations include maintaining PHECS status with defined de-escalation criteria, scaling up response intensity in North Kivu, urgently addressing community deaths, strengthening genuine community participation, improving contact-tracing data quality, restoring disrupted health services, and continuing vaccine effectiveness studies. The assessment directly contradicts DRC Health Minister Dr. Roger Samuel Kamba's 14-15 September statements that the outbreak's growth had already peaked in mid-August.