Foreign Policy: Colombia's Presidential Candidates Vie for Runoff as Election Violence Looms

Foreign Policy published an election-eve analysis nine days before Colombia's May 31 first-round presidential vote, examining how widespread violence and insecurity were shaping the race. Front-runner Iván Cepeda (Historic Pact, left), polling at roughly 44%, leads on a platform of deepening Total Peace negotiations and social investment. Right-wing challengers Paloma Valencia (Centro Democrático) and Abelardo de la Espriella have pledged to suspend armed group talks that continue violence, resume aerial fumigation of coca, and pursue a harder security line. No candidate was projected to win an outright first-round majority, making a June runoff near-certain. The analysis noted that whichever candidate emerges will inherit Petro's stalled peace process and the worst conflict displacement figures in a decade, placing Colombia at a definitive fork between negotiation and confrontation.