Quaest Poll: Flávio Bolsonaro Edges Ahead of Lula in Runoff, 42%–41%

A Quaest poll of 2,004 voters, conducted September 17–20 and released September 21, showed Senator Flávio Bolsonaro leading President Lula 42% to 41% in a simulated runoff — a technical tie inside the 2-point margin of error, but the first time in the series Bolsonaro edged ahead. In the first-round scenario, Lula still led 37% to 33%. The result capped a two-week narrowing from a prior 42–40 Lula lead, with the October 4 first round two weeks away.