CFR Analysis: Five Drivers Behind the Afghan-Taliban–Pakistan 'Open War'

The Council on Foreign Relations published an analytical overview of the five core drivers behind the Afghanistan-Pakistan interstate conflict: (1) TTP sanctuary in Afghan territory with Taliban tolerance; (2) the unsettled Durand Line border dispute dating to 1893; (3) Pakistani domestic pressure to show deterrent against cross-border terrorism following the January-February 2026 attack wave; (4) Taliban's ideological refusal to recognize the Durand Line as an international border; and (5) the collapse of backchannel mediation attempts by China and Gulf states. The CFR analysis assessed that neither side had achieved its stated objectives after over a month of fighting, and that structural incentives for de-escalation were weak given domestic political constraints on both sides. The report characterized the conflict as a 'low-intensity interstate war' unlikely to escalate to full conventional war but also unlikely to resolve through negotiation in the near term.