Latest data updates for Taiwan Strait Tensions Tracker.https://watchboard.dev/en-ushttps://watchboard.dev/taiwan-conflict/#digest-2026-06-07/https://watchboard.dev/taiwan-conflict/#digest-2026-06-07/June 6 saw a sharp re-escalation with 22 PLA sorties — the third-highest non-exercise count ever recorded — with 2 of 22 crossing the Taiwan Strait median line into central and southwestern ADIZ sectors, and 8 PLAN vessels plus 2 official ships maintaining maritime presence. This came 48 hours after June 4's all-time non-exercise sortie record (32 sorties, 25 crossing all four ADIZ sectors simultaneously). June 7 brought the predictable pullback to 4 sorties, but official ship presence more than tripled from 2 to 7 vessels — the highest official ship count since late May — as PLAN vessels held at 9, consistent with PLA's gray-zone hybrid strategy of offsetting reduced air sorties with elevated maritime legal presence. The full June 2026 sequence now reads: 7→18→32 RECORD→7→22→4. The $14B PAC-3/NASAMS arms package remains 'under review' per Secretary Rubio's June 3 Senate testimony, with the US FMS pause for Operation Epic Fury (Iran) still active.Sun, 07 Jun 2026 00:00:00 GMTdailyhttps://watchboard.dev/taiwan-conflict/#digest-2026-06-06/https://watchboard.dev/taiwan-conflict/#digest-2026-06-06/PLA Re-Escalation: 22 Sorties June 6 — 2 Cross Median Line into Central + SW ADIZ; 8 PLAN Vessels + 2 Ships; Second Surge Post-June 4 Record.Sat, 06 Jun 2026 00:00:00 GMTdailyhttps://watchboard.dev/taiwan-conflict/#digest-2026-06-05/https://watchboard.dev/taiwan-conflict/#digest-2026-06-05/PLA set a new all-time non-exercise sortie record on June 4 — 32 sorties with 25 crossing the Taiwan Strait median line into all four ADIZ sectors simultaneously (northern, central, southwestern, eastern), surpassing May 2's prior record of 29 sorties. The surge coincided with the 37th anniversary of Tiananmen Square: President Lai Ching-te called on China to 'face up to the incident and open the door to dialogue,' while Taiwan held a candlelight vigil in Taipei. June 3 had also seen a re-escalation to 18 sorties (14/18 crossing median into N+SW ADIZ), with Secretary Rubio testifying before the Senate that the $14B Taiwan arms package is 'under review,' not paused, and the US does not consult Beijing on Taiwan arms decisions. June 5 saw the predictable post-record pullback: 7 sorties (all SW ADIZ, zero median crossings), with 10 PLAN vessels maintaining elevated maritime presence. Taiwan raised its 2026 GDP growth forecast to 9.64% — the highest since 2010 — as Computex 2026 closed with Nvidia announcing up to $150B/year in Taiwanese supplier commitments.Fri, 05 Jun 2026 00:00:00 GMTdailyhttps://watchboard.dev/taiwan-conflict/#digest-2026-06-04/https://watchboard.dev/taiwan-conflict/#digest-2026-06-04/PLA 32 Sorties June 4 — NEW All-Time Non-Exercise Record; 25 of 32 Cross Median Line into ALL FOUR ADIZ Sectors; 10 PLAN Vessels + 5 Ships; Tiananmen 37th Anniversary. June 4, 2026 marked the 37th anniversary of the Tiananmen Square crackdown.Thu, 04 Jun 2026 00:00:00 GMTdailyhttps://watchboard.dev/taiwan-conflict/#digest-2026-06-03/https://watchboard.dev/taiwan-conflict/#digest-2026-06-03/PLA 18 Sorties June 3 — 14 of 18 Cross Median Line into Northern + SW ADIZ; 8 PLAN Vessels + 6 Ships; Post-Zero-Crossing Re-Escalation. Secretary Rubio Tells Senate $14B Taiwan Arms Package is 'Under Review,' Not Paused — US Does Not Consult Beijing on Arms Decisions.Wed, 03 Jun 2026 00:00:00 GMTdailyhttps://watchboard.dev/taiwan-conflict/#digest-2026-06-02/https://watchboard.dev/taiwan-conflict/#digest-2026-06-02/PLA recorded 7 sorties on June 2 with all entering the southwestern ADIZ but zero crossing the Taiwan Strait median line — the first zero-crossing day since May 31's HIMARS deadline-day pullback, representing a modest air de-escalation from June 1's 8 sorties (2 crossing). Eight PLAN vessels and 5 official ships operated around Taiwan (marginal naval uptick from June 1's 7+4). The extended May–June sequence reads: →16→1→8→7. On the same day, Computex 2026 opened in Taipei: Intel CEO Lip-Bu Tan arrived for TSMC meetings, Nvidia CEO Jensen Huang announced a major Taiwan investment expansion driving TSMC shares up ~4.8%, and TSMC is reported to be planning a 15% price hike on 3nm processes in H2 2026 amid AI demand surge. Taiwan's HIMARS NT$800M down payment remains confirmed met (May 31); US FMS pause for Operation Epic Fury (Iran) continues active.Tue, 02 Jun 2026 00:00:00 GMTdailyhttps://watchboard.dev/taiwan-conflict/#digest-2026-06-01/https://watchboard.dev/taiwan-conflict/#digest-2026-06-01/PLA rebounded to 8 sorties on June 1 (2 of 8 crossing the Taiwan Strait median line into the southwestern and eastern ADIZ sectors), up from May 31's single-sortie 'HIMARS deadline day' pullback — consistent with the established post-pullback moderate recovery pattern. Seven PLAN vessels and 4 official ships maintained maritime pressure around Taiwan. The critical milestone: Taiwan successfully met the May 31 HIMARS NT$800 million down payment deadline (for all 82 launchers) using Executive Yuan emergency reserve funds following the Legislative Yuan's May 29 third-reading passage of the NT$8.81B FY2026 special procurement budget without opposition. The extended May→June sortie sequence now reads: 4→29→1→2→1→0→22→12→8→12→7→9→2→3→15→6→7→13→24→7→6→16→4→9→26→10→9→10→16→1→8. The US FMS pause for Operation Epic Fury (Iran) remains active; the $14B PAC-3/NASAMS package remains 'in abeyance' (Trump); no Trump-Lai direct call has been confirmed.Mon, 01 Jun 2026 00:00:00 GMTdailyhttps://watchboard.dev/taiwan-conflict/#digest-2026-05-31/https://watchboard.dev/taiwan-conflict/#digest-2026-05-31/May 31 is Taiwan's HIMARS first payment deadline day: with the NT$8.81B FY2026 procurement budget passed by the Legislature on May 29 without opposition and Executive Yuan emergency reserve funds pre-authorized as backstop, Taiwan is positioned to meet the NT$800M down payment for 82 HIMARS launchers today. PLA air activity dropped dramatically to just 1 sortie on deadline day (down 94% from May 30's 16-sortie surge), while 8 PLAN vessels and 4 official ships maintained maritime pressure — consistent with the established spike-then-pullback oscillating pattern. The full May 2026 sortie sequence reached: 4→29→1→2→1→0→22→12→8→12→7→9→2→3→15→6→7→13→24→7→6→16→4→9→26→10→9→10→16→1. New event files for May 30 (16 sorties, 7/16 cross median N/E ADIZ, 8 PLAN) and May 31 (1 sortie, 8 PLAN, 4 ships) were created. Map-lines, KPIs, political profiles, claims, and meta were updated to reflect HIMARS deadline day status, the May 30-31 PLA activity pattern, and the ongoing US FMS pause and $14B arms package uncertainty.Sun, 31 May 2026 00:00:00 GMTdailyhttps://watchboard.dev/taiwan-conflict/#digest-2026-05-30/https://watchboard.dev/taiwan-conflict/#digest-2026-05-30/PLA 16 Sorties May 30 — 7 of 16 Cross Median Line Into Northern/Eastern ADIZ; 8 PLAN Vessels, 3 Ships.Sat, 30 May 2026 00:00:00 GMTdailyhttps://watchboard.dev/taiwan-conflict/#digest-2026-05-29/https://watchboard.dev/taiwan-conflict/#digest-2026-05-29/Taiwan's Legislative Yuan passed the NT$8.81 billion FY2026 special arms procurement budget on its third reading on May 29 without opposition — two days before the May 31 HIMARS first payment deadline — funding 82 HIMARS launchers, M109A7 howitzers, anti-armor drones, Javelin ATGMs, and TOW 2B missiles. The legislation also authorizes up to NT$780 billion in US arms procurement through 2033. PLA maintained elevated pressure: on May 28, Taiwan detected 9 sorties (all 9 crossing the median line — 100% rate — into central and SW ADIZ) with 6 PLAN vessels; on May 29, Taiwan detected 10 sorties with 8 PLAN vessels and 4 ships. The full May sortie sequence now reads: 4→29→1→2→1→0→22→12→8→12→7→9→2→3→15→6→7→13→24→7→6→16→4→9→26→10→9→10. In a significant technological development, the US autonomous uncrewed surface vessel 'Lightfish' completed the first autonomous Taiwan Strait transit in late May 2026 — 1,000+ nautical miles over five days — encountering PLA Type 056 corvettes operating without AIS transponders in Taiwan's EEZ. No Trump-Lai call has been confirmed; Taiwan FM stated 'no planning talks' as of May 25.Fri, 29 May 2026 00:00:00 GMTdailyhttps://watchboard.dev/taiwan-conflict/#digest-2026-05-28/https://watchboard.dev/taiwan-conflict/#digest-2026-05-28/PLA 9 Sorties May 28 — All 9 Cross Median Line Into Central/SW ADIZ; 6 PLAN Vessels.Thu, 28 May 2026 00:00:00 GMTdailyhttps://watchboard.dev/taiwan-conflict/#digest-2026-05-27/https://watchboard.dev/taiwan-conflict/#digest-2026-05-27/PLA launched its second 'joint combat readiness patrol' in one week on May 26 — 26 sorties and 7 PLAN vessels, the highest sortie count since the May 20 surge. Taiwan's F-16 photographed a PLA YY-20 tanker conducting mid-air refueling of two fighters. NSC Secretary-General Joseph Wu condemned the patrol as 'unprovoked' and revealed China had deployed 100+ ships along the First Island Chain following the Trump-Xi summit. On May 27, Taiwan detected 10 PLA sorties with 9 crossing the median line into N/C/SW ADIZ sectors; the full May sequence now reads 4→29→1→2→1→0→22→12→8→12→7→9→2→3→15→6→7→13→24→7→6→16→4→9→26→10. The NT$295B special procurement budget cleared the combined legislative committee on May 27 with only a NT$2 million cut; a floor vote is expected May 29, four days before the May 31 HIMARS payment deadline. Executive Yuan reserve funds are authorized as a payment backstop.Wed, 27 May 2026 00:00:00 GMTdailyhttps://watchboard.dev/taiwan-conflict/#digest-2026-05-26/https://watchboard.dev/taiwan-conflict/#digest-2026-05-26/PLA 26 Sorties May 26 — Second 'Joint Combat Readiness Patrol' in One Week; Taiwan F-16 Photographs YY-20 Aerial Refueling; NSC Joseph Wu: 'Unprovoked'; 100+ PLA Ships Along First Island Chain. Defense Minister Koo Testifies: HIMARS Gives Taiwan 300 km Deep-Strike Capability; NT$295B Budget Under Final Committee Review; Floor Vote Expected May 29 — 5 Days to HIMARS Deadline.Tue, 26 May 2026 00:00:00 GMTdailyhttps://watchboard.dev/taiwan-conflict/#digest-2026-05-25/https://watchboard.dev/taiwan-conflict/#digest-2026-05-25/PLA recorded 9 sorties on May 25 (8 entering SW/Eastern ADIZ, 7 PLAN vessels + 1 official ship) — a moderate re-escalation from the May 24 pullback of 4 sorties, extending the established spike-then-pullback-then-rebuild oscillating pattern. The full May 2026 sortie sequence now stands at 4→29→1→2→1→0→22→12→8→12→7→9→2→3→15→6→7→13→24→7→6→16→4→9. Taiwan's Legislative Yuan Finance Committee commenced hearings today (May 25) on the NT$295 billion special procurement budget, with a floor vote expected May 27-28 and only 6 days until the May 31 HIMARS payment deadline. Defense Minister Wellington Koo confirmed the Article 84 emergency payment fallback remains on standby. Trump's May 21 statement that he is willing to speak directly with President Lai Ching-te — the first such prospect since 1979 — represents a potentially significant diplomatic development amid the paused $14B PAC-3/NASAMS package. Map-lines, KPIs, political profiles, and claims updated to reflect the May 25 re-escalation and legislative timeline.Mon, 25 May 2026 00:00:00 GMTdailyhttps://watchboard.dev/taiwan-conflict/#digest-2026-05-24/https://watchboard.dev/taiwan-conflict/#digest-2026-05-24/PLA surged to 16 sorties on May 23 (13 crossing the median line into N/C/SW/E ADIZ sectors simultaneously — the same four-sector blockade-rehearsal geometry as May 20) on the same day the Washington Post confirmed the Trump administration has paused the $14 billion Taiwan arms sale following the Trump-Xi Beijing summit. Taiwan's Presidential Office maintained that no formal notification had been received and remained optimistic on eventual approval. On May 24, PLA pulled back to 4 sorties (3 crossing SW/SE ADIZ, 6 PLAN vessels) consistent with the established spike-then-pullback oscillating pattern. With the HIMARS payment deadline 7 days away (May 31), Taiwan's Legislative Yuan Finance Committee hearings are set for Monday May 25, with a floor vote expected May 27-28. Congressional Republicans and bipartisan members pushed back against the $14B pause, citing the PORCUPINE Act's advance-notification requirement. Map-lines updated with May 23 four-sector surge and May 24 pullback ADIZ incursion tracks.Sun, 24 May 2026 00:00:00 GMTdailyhttps://watchboard.dev/taiwan-conflict/#digest-2026-05-23/https://watchboard.dev/taiwan-conflict/#digest-2026-05-23/PLA 16 Sorties on May 23 — 13 Cross Median Line Into N/C/SW/E ADIZ; 8 PLAN Vessels — Significant Spike From May 22 Baseline. Washington Post Confirms US Has Paused $14B Taiwan Arms Sale After Trump-Xi Summit; Congressional Republicans Push Back; Beijing Welcomes Pause.Sat, 23 May 2026 00:00:00 GMTdailyhttps://watchboard.dev/taiwan-conflict/#digest-2026-05-22/https://watchboard.dev/taiwan-conflict/#digest-2026-05-22/PLA detected with 6 sorties on May 22 — all crossing the median line into northern, southwestern, and eastern ADIZ sectors — alongside 10 PLAN vessels, the highest naval count of the post-Trump-Xi-summit period and highest since the Liaoning carrier transit (April 20). The elevated maritime presence signals a PLA shift toward sustained naval pressure as the May 31 HIMARS payment deadline approaches (9 days). On the diplomatic front, US Acting Navy Secretary Hung Cao confirmed a temporary FMS pause while prioritizing munitions for Operation Epic Fury (Iran); Taiwan's Presidential Office responded that no notification of arms changes had been received and remains optimistic. China simultaneously blocked Elbridge Colby's Pentagon Beijing visit as leverage over the $14B PAC-3/NASAMS arms decision, assessed as an attempt to delay any announcement until Xi Jinping's late-September Washington visit. Taiwan's Cabinet formally rejected Trump's claim that America 'lost' its semiconductor industry to Taiwan through theft, with Secretary-General Chang stating: 'Taiwan did not steal chips from the world. It supplies them to the world.' Finance Committee hearings on the NT$295B procurement budget are set for Monday May 25, with a floor vote expected Wednesday-Thursday May 27-28.Fri, 22 May 2026 00:00:00 GMTdailyhttps://watchboard.dev/taiwan-conflict/#digest-2026-05-21/https://watchboard.dev/taiwan-conflict/#digest-2026-05-21/PLA activity on May 20 surged to 24 sorties — 13 crossing the median line into northern, central, southwestern, and eastern ADIZ sectors simultaneously — the largest post-Trump-Xi-summit single-day count and broadest multi-sector incursion since May 7. Six PLAN vessels and 3 official ships also operated around Taiwan. Activity stepped back to 7 sorties on May 21 (6 crossing into N/SW ADIZ, 7 PLAN vessels + 1 official ship), consistent with the established spike-then-pullback pattern. Taiwan's Cabinet approved a NT$295 billion (~US$9.3 billion) special military procurement budget on May 20 covering HIMARS, M109A7 howitzers, Javelin missiles, TOW 2B, and anti-armor drone systems. The HIMARS payment deadline is May 31 — 10 days away. Minister of National Defense Wellington Koo confirmed on May 21 that Article 84 of the Budget Act will be invoked if the Legislative Yuan misses the deadline, providing an emergency executive payment fallback.Thu, 21 May 2026 00:00:00 GMTdailyhttps://watchboard.dev/taiwan-conflict/#digest-2026-05-20/https://watchboard.dev/taiwan-conflict/#digest-2026-05-20/PLA Surges to 24 Sorties on May 20 — 13 Cross Median Line Into N/C/SW/E ADIZ; 6 PLAN Vessels + 3 Official Ships; Largest Single-Day Count Since May 7. Taiwan Cabinet Approves NT$295 Billion ($9.3B) Special Procurement Budget — HIMARS, M109A7, Javelin, TOW 2B; HIMARS Deadline 11 Days; Defense Minister Warns of Article 84 Fallback.Wed, 20 May 2026 00:00:00 GMTdailyhttps://watchboard.dev/taiwan-conflict/#digest-2026-05-19/https://watchboard.dev/taiwan-conflict/#digest-2026-05-19/PLA activity surged to 13 sorties on May 19 with 10 crossing the median line into northern, southwestern, and eastern ADIZ sectors simultaneously — the highest post-Trump-Xi-summit sortie count, nearly doubling the May 18 baseline of 7 sorties. The multi-sector geometry matches major escalation patterns seen earlier in May and April 2026, with 5 PLAN vessels and 2 official ships operating around Taiwan. On the diplomatic front, the US House Foreign Affairs Committee passed the PORCUPINE Act 45-0, elevating Taiwan to the same arms-sale legal status as Australia, Israel, and Japan — a bipartisan counter-signal to Trump's post-Beijing arms ambiguity. Ten senators issued a joint statement declaring themselves 'deeply disturbed' by Trump's failure to address Taiwan's defense at the summit. The HIMARS payment deadline (May 31) is now 12 days away, with the KMT-inserted procedural LOA approval requirement still the critical bottleneck.Tue, 19 May 2026 00:00:00 GMTdailyhttps://watchboard.dev/taiwan-conflict/#digest-2026-05-18/https://watchboard.dev/taiwan-conflict/#digest-2026-05-18/PLA air activity ticked up on May 18 with 7 sorties detected (5 crossing the median line into northern and southwestern ADIZ sectors), up from 6 sorties on May 17 — a mild post-summit escalation with 5 PLAN vessels and 1 official ship maintaining steady naval pressure. USTR Jamieson Greer publicly contradicted President Trump's 'bargaining chip' framing, stating there is 'no change in American policy' on Taiwan arms sales — adding intra-administration incoherence to the already uncertain post-summit arms calculus. Taiwan was excluded from the World Health Assembly for the tenth consecutive year as the 79th WHA opened in Geneva, drawing condemnation from the US and EU. President Lai Ching-te reiterated that Taiwan 'will not relinquish its national sovereignty and dignity' and invoked TSMC's 72% global foundry share as a strategic interest shared with Washington. The HIMARS payment deadline (May 31) is now 13 days away with the KMT-inserted procedural LOA approval requirement remaining the critical bottleneck.Mon, 18 May 2026 00:00:00 GMTdailyhttps://watchboard.dev/taiwan-conflict/#digest-2026-05-17/https://watchboard.dev/taiwan-conflict/#digest-2026-05-17/President Trump confirmed the $14 billion PAC-3/NASAMS arms package is 'in abeyance' as a 'very good negotiating chip' with Beijing, alarming bipartisan congressional Taiwan hawks and introducing unprecedented transactionalism into Taiwan's security equation. Trump publicly told Taiwan to 'cool it a little bit.' PLA maintained moderate post-summit pressure on May 17: 6 aircraft sorties (4 entering SW/Eastern ADIZ), 5 PLAN vessels plus 1 official ship — down from the 15-aircraft summit-conclusion day surge. Taiwan News analysis identified the NT$780B special defense budget as 'strategically incomplete' — T-Dome, domestic drone scale-up, and joint manufacturing absent. CFR, Atlantic Council, and Seoul Economic Daily all published post-summit assessments identifying Taiwan's security as the central unresolved challenge; the HIMARS payment deadline (May 31) is now 14 days away.Sun, 17 May 2026 00:00:00 GMTdailyhttps://watchboard.dev/taiwan-conflict/#digest-2026-05-16/https://watchboard.dev/taiwan-conflict/#digest-2026-05-16/Trump Confirms $14B Taiwan Arms Package 'In Abeyance' as 'Very Good Negotiating Chip' with Beijing — Post-Summit Clarification Alarms Taiwan Hawks. Taiwan Defense Budget Analysis: NT$780B 'Strategically Incomplete' — T-Dome, Domestic Drone Production, Joint Manufacturing Excluded; Procedural Bottleneck Threatens HIMARS Deadline.Sat, 16 May 2026 00:00:00 GMTdailyhttps://watchboard.dev/taiwan-conflict/#digest-2026-05-15/https://watchboard.dev/taiwan-conflict/#digest-2026-05-15/The Trump-Xi Beijing summit concluded on May 15 without a joint communiqué on Taiwan and with deep ambiguity about the $14 billion US arms package. Xi Jinping's summit warning — 'Handle Taiwan badly, risk collision or conflict' — stood unaddressed, and the US readout contained no mention of Taiwan. Secretary of State Rubio said arms sales 'did not feature prominently.' Bloomberg headlined: 'Trump and Xi Had a Warm Summit. Taiwan Will Test Ties Soon.' PLA marked the summit's conclusion with a post-summit re-escalation: 15 aircraft detected (2 entering SW ADIZ), up sharply from summit-window lows of 2-3 sorties. Taiwan's HIMARS payment deadline remains May 31 (16 days), with Taiwan MND prepared to use reserve funds as backup. Full May sortie sequence: 4→29→1→2→1→0→22→12→8→12→7→9→2→3→15.Fri, 15 May 2026 00:00:00 GMTdailyhttps://watchboard.dev/taiwan-conflict/#digest-2026-05-14/https://watchboard.dev/taiwan-conflict/#digest-2026-05-14/Trump-Xi Summit Day 1: Xi Issues Sharp Taiwan Warning — 'Handle It Badly, Risk Collision'; No Joint Communiqué; Arms Sales 'Did Not Feature Prominently' — Rubio. Taiwan's Ministry of National Defense reported 3 PLA aircraft sorties in its daily 06:00 local time snapshot on May 14, 2026 — the opening day of the Trump-Xi Beijing summit.Thu, 14 May 2026 00:00:00 GMTdailyhttps://watchboard.dev/taiwan-conflict/#digest-2026-05-13/https://watchboard.dev/taiwan-conflict/#digest-2026-05-13/Trump arrived in Beijing on May 13, 2026 for the May 14-15 Trump-Xi Jinping summit, with Taiwan's security — particularly US arms sales and independence stance — topping Xi's agenda. PLA executed a summit-eve pullback to just 2 aircraft sorties on May 13 (down from 9 on May 12, 5 of which crossed the median line into SW/Eastern ADIZ), while maintaining 7 PLAN vessels. The full May sortie sequence: 4→29→1→2→1→0→22→12→8→12→7→9→2. The $14B PAC-3/NASAMS package remains on hold pending summit outcome, and Taiwan's HIMARS payment deadline is 18 days away (May 31). Xi is expected to press Trump on limiting US arms sales and opposing Taiwan independence; bipartisan US Congress urged Trump not to trade Taiwan's security for trade concessions.Wed, 13 May 2026 00:00:00 GMTdailyhttps://watchboard.dev/taiwan-conflict/#digest-2026-05-12/https://watchboard.dev/taiwan-conflict/#digest-2026-05-12/PLA Posts 9 Sorties on May 12 — 5 Cross Median Line Into SW/Eastern ADIZ; 7 PLAN Vessels + 1 Ship; 2 Days to Trump-Xi Summit. With the Trump-Xi Beijing summit now 2 days away (May 14-15, 2026), major international media published summit-eve analyses confirming Taiwan tops Xi Jinping's agenda.Tue, 12 May 2026 00:00:00 GMTdailyhttps://watchboard.dev/taiwan-conflict/#digest-2026-05-11/https://watchboard.dev/taiwan-conflict/#digest-2026-05-11/PLA posted 7 sorties on May 11 (5 crossing the median line into northern and southwestern ADIZ sectors) with 5 PLAN vessels and 1 official ship — a moderate pullback from May 10's 12-sortie count but maintaining consistent pre-summit pressure as the Trump-Xi Beijing summit is now 3 days away. US Representatives Tom Tiffany and Chris Smith sent a letter to Secretary Rubio urging that President Lai be granted the same US visit rights as KMT Chair Cheng Li-wun, while Senators Shaheen and Tillis pressed Trump not to trade Taiwan's arms pipeline in Beijing before departing for the May 14-15 summit. The Washington Post and US News/AP published major analyses warning Xi will press Trump to limit US arms sales and oppose independence. The HIMARS down-payment deadline is now 20 days from the critical May 31 cutoff, and the $14B PAC-3/NASAMS package remains on hold pending the summit outcome.Mon, 11 May 2026 00:00:00 GMTdailyhttps://watchboard.dev/taiwan-conflict/#digest-2026-05-10/https://watchboard.dev/taiwan-conflict/#digest-2026-05-10/PLA posted 12 sorties on May 10 — 9 crossing the median line into northern and southwestern ADIZ sectors, with 5 PLAN vessels and 1 official ship — re-escalating from 8 sorties on May 9 and matching May 8's elevated baseline. The May pre-summit sortie total now reads: 4→29→1→2→1→0→22→12→8→12. On May 9, President Lai Ching-te warned Taiwan may miss the NT$800 million HIMARS down payment deadline (May 31) because the KMT-inserted procedural approval step in the NT$780B Special Defense Budget cannot complete before the deadline — the US State Department called the delay 'a concession to Beijing.' With 4 days to the May 14-15 Trump-Xi Beijing summit, US C-17s have landed in Beijing for pre-summit logistics; CFR and CSIS analysts confirm Taiwan, trade, and Iran top Xi's agenda, with Beijing expected to press Trump on limiting future arms sales to Taiwan and opposing independence. TSMC April 2026 revenue was NT$410.73B (+17.5% YoY) — the slowest monthly growth since October 2025 — with 5 fabs beginning 2nm volume production this year.Sun, 10 May 2026 00:00:00 GMTdailyhttps://watchboard.dev/taiwan-conflict/#digest-2026-05-09/https://watchboard.dev/taiwan-conflict/#digest-2026-05-09/PLA Posts 8 Sorties on May 9 — All 8 Cross Median Line Into C/SW/E ADIZ; 6 PLAN Vessels + 2 Official Ships; 5 Days to Trump-Xi Summit. Lai Warns Taiwan May Miss HIMARS Payment Deadline (May 31) Due to KMT Budget Constraint; US State Dept: Taiwan Funding Delay Is 'Concession to Beijing'.Sat, 09 May 2026 00:00:00 GMTdailyhttps://watchboard.dev/taiwan-conflict/#digest-2026-05-08/https://watchboard.dev/taiwan-conflict/#digest-2026-05-08/Taiwan's Legislative Yuan passed the NT$780 billion (US$24.8B) Special Defense Budget on May 8, 2026 — the largest in Taiwan's history — via KMT-TPP majority (59-0, 48 abstentions), 6 days before the Trump-Xi Beijing summit (May 14-15). Phase 1 (NT$300B) funds already-approved HIMARS, M109A7, and anti-tank missiles; Phase 2 (NT$480B) awaits a second US arms package. The $14B PAC-3/NASAMS package remains on hold pending Trump's Beijing visit. On the military front, PLA posted 12 sorties (10 crossing the median line into N/SW/E ADIZ) with 6 PLAN vessels and 2 official ships — sustained elevated pre-summit pressure but de-escalating from May 7's 22-sortie surge. Xi Jinping has placed Taiwan atop the summit agenda, where Beijing is expected to press Trump to limit arms sales and oppose independence. Taiwan Deputy FM Francois Wu: 'What we are most afraid of is to put Taiwan on the menu of the talk between Xi Jinping and President Trump.'Fri, 08 May 2026 00:00:00 GMTdailyhttps://watchboard.dev/taiwan-conflict/#digest-2026-05-07/https://watchboard.dev/taiwan-conflict/#digest-2026-05-07/PLA dramatically re-escalated on May 7, surging to 22 sorties with 18 of 22 crossing the Taiwan Strait median line into northern, central, southwestern, and eastern ADIZ sectors simultaneously — the second-highest non-exercise day on record, reversing the zero-sortie day of May 6 overnight. 6 PLAN vessels and 1 official ship continued maritime operations. A Washington Post report confirmed China has explicitly signaled Taiwan as the top priority agenda item at the May 14-15 Trump-Xi Beijing summit, with Beijing expected to press Trump on arms sales restraint and opposition to Taiwan independence. Taiwan's defense budget floor vote is eligible from May 8 after the fourth cross-party negotiation round collapsed without consensus on May 6. The $14B PAC-3/NASAMS arms package remains on hold pending the summit, as Taiwan tops Xi Jinping's agenda for the first time in a Trump-Xi meeting.Thu, 07 May 2026 00:00:00 GMTdailyhttps://watchboard.dev/taiwan-conflict/#digest-2026-05-06/https://watchboard.dev/taiwan-conflict/#digest-2026-05-06/PLA paused all air sorties on May 6 — the first zero-sortie day since the pre-record surge — while 7 PLAN vessels + 1 official ship maintained maritime presence around Taiwan. The cooling follows PLA's May 2 non-exercise record of 29 sorties (surpassing April 26's 28-sortie peak), with the post-record sequence: 1 sortie (May 3) → 2 sorties (May 4) → 1 sortie (May 5) → 0 sorties (May 6). Taiwan's defense budget fourth cross-party round concluded May 6 without consensus; the KMT's NT$380B plan and DPP's NT$1.25T request remain deadlocked, but a floor vote is legally possible from May 8. Vice President Hsiao Bi-khim said the budget 'shows Taiwan's will to defend itself.' With 8 days to the Trump-Xi Beijing summit (May 14-15), PLA's air pause is consistent with pre-summit diplomatic calibration. TSMC's $56B AI fab expansion and strong earnings signal semiconductor sector resilience.Wed, 06 May 2026 00:00:00 GMTdailyhttps://watchboard.dev/taiwan-conflict/#digest-2026-05-05/https://watchboard.dev/taiwan-conflict/#digest-2026-05-05/PLA Maintains Near-Minimum Activity on May 5 — 1 Sortie (Northern ADIZ), 6 PLAN Vessels + 1 Official Ship; Continued Post-Record Cooling; 9 Days to Trump-Xi Summit.Tue, 05 May 2026 00:00:00 GMTdailyhttps://watchboard.dev/taiwan-conflict/#digest-2026-05-04/https://watchboard.dev/taiwan-conflict/#digest-2026-05-04/PLA set a new non-exercise sortie record of 29 on May 2, surpassing the April 26 peak of 28 — with 15 sorties crossing the median line into northern, central, and southwestern ADIZ simultaneously, and J-10, J-16, and KJ-500 AEW&C aircraft deployed. PLA then executed its spike-then-pullback: 4 sorties (May 1) → 29 sorties (May 2, new record) → 1 sortie (May 3) → 2 sorties (May 4), while naval presence rose to 8 PLAN vessels on May 4. Taiwan has been confirmed as the top item on Xi Jinping's agenda for the Trump-Xi Beijing summit (May 14-15, 10 days away), with Beijing expected to press Trump on arms sales restraint and Taiwanese independence. Taiwan's fourth cross-party defense budget negotiation round is scheduled for May 6; the KMT remains split between NT$800B and NT$380B proposals versus the DPP's full NT$1.25T request. Public polling shows 72-78% of Taiwanese support the full budget amount.Mon, 04 May 2026 00:00:00 GMTdailyhttps://watchboard.dev/taiwan-conflict/#digest-2026-05-03/https://watchboard.dev/taiwan-conflict/#digest-2026-05-03/PLA De-Escalates to 1 Sortie After 29-Sortie May 2 Record — Northern ADIZ Entry; Naval Count Rises to 7 Vessels + 3 Official Ships; 11 Days to Trump-Xi Summit. Taiwan Defense Budget Deadlock Continues — KMT Signals May 6 Fourth Negotiation Round; NT$800B Cap vs. NT$1.25T Request; US Lawmakers Press Taiwan to Signal Commitment Before Trump-Xi Summit.Sun, 03 May 2026 00:00:00 GMTdailyhttps://watchboard.dev/taiwan-conflict/#digest-2026-05-02/https://watchboard.dev/taiwan-conflict/#digest-2026-05-02/PLA Surges to 29 Sorties on May 2 — New Non-Exercise Record Surpassing April 26 Peak; 15 of 29 Cross Median Line Into Northern, Central, SW ADIZ; J-10, J-16, KJ-500 AEW&C Deployed; 12 Days to Trump-Xi Summit. Taiwan Tops Xi Jinping's Agenda for Trump-Xi Beijing Summit — Taipei Deputy FM Warns Against Being 'Put on the Menu'; Fourth Defense Budget Negotiation Round Scheduled May 6.Sat, 02 May 2026 00:00:00 GMTdailyhttps://watchboard.dev/taiwan-conflict/#digest-2026-05-01/https://watchboard.dev/taiwan-conflict/#digest-2026-05-01/PLA Registers 4 Sorties, All Entering SW ADIZ on May 1 — 5 PLAN Vessels + 2 Official Ships; Sustained Post-Peak Baseline 13 Days Before Trump-Xi Summit.Fri, 01 May 2026 00:00:00 GMTdailyhttps://watchboard.dev/taiwan-conflict/#digest-2026-04-30/https://watchboard.dev/taiwan-conflict/#digest-2026-04-30/PLA de-escalated to just 2 aircraft sorties and 5 PLAN vessels plus 2 official ships on April 30 — the lowest combined activity since the post-peak pullback and a sustained drawdown from the 28-sortie non-exercise peak of April 26 (the highest count since Justice Mission-2025). Both sorties entered Taiwan's southwestern ADIZ. With 14 days to the Trump-Xi Beijing summit (May 14-15), former US intelligence chiefs escalated pressure on Taiwan's legislature on April 30 to pass the NT$1.25 trillion defense budget 'with all due haste,' following AIT Director Greene (Apr 27) and INDOPACOM Admiral Paparo (Apr 22-23). KMT legislators clashed internally over the NT$800B cap on April 28, signaling possible flexibility. TSMC completed a $231M divestment of its Arm Holdings stake on April 29 amid a 58% Q1 2026 profit surge and a >30% full-year revenue growth forecast. April 29 reporting also documented China's dual-use civilian cargo fleet as a potential asymmetric asset in Taiwan Strait military scenarios.Thu, 30 Apr 2026 00:00:00 GMTdailyhttps://watchboard.dev/taiwan-conflict/#digest-2026-04-29/https://watchboard.dev/taiwan-conflict/#digest-2026-04-29/SCMP analysis: China's weaponized civilian cargo ships could serve as key asymmetric assets in Taiwan Strait scenario — dual-use logistics fleet examinedWed, 29 Apr 2026 00:00:00 GMTbreakinghttps://watchboard.dev/taiwan-conflict/#digest-2026-04-28/https://watchboard.dev/taiwan-conflict/#digest-2026-04-28/KMT Legislators Clash Internally Over NT$800B Defense Budget Cap — Defections Signal Possible Flexibility Before Trump-Xi Summit. Tokyo Electron Taiwan Fined NT$150M in TSMC 2nm Trade Secret Case — Global Semiconductor IP Enforcement Scrutiny Intensifies.Tue, 28 Apr 2026 00:00:00 GMTdailyhttps://watchboard.dev/taiwan-conflict/#digest-2026-04-27/https://watchboard.dev/taiwan-conflict/#digest-2026-04-27/PLA pulled back to 7 aircraft sorties on April 27 — a sharp 75% de-escalation from the 28-sortie non-exercise peak of April 26 — but PLAN naval vessels surged to 9 ships (the highest count since the April 20 Liaoning carrier transit), with 6 of 7 sorties entering Taiwan's northern and southwestern ADIZ simultaneously. The PLA's oscillating spike-then-pullback pattern continues 17 days before the Trump-Xi Beijing summit (May 14-15). AIT Director Raymond Greene publicly pressed Taiwan's Legislative Yuan on April 27 to pass a 'comprehensive' defense budget, the second senior US official in five days to intervene after INDOPACOM Admiral Paparo's 'can't starve the chicken' warning; the KMT-DPP deadlock at NT$800B vs. NT$1.25T continues. A Taiwan court sentenced a former Tokyo Electron engineer to 10 years for stealing TSMC trade secrets. President Lai Ching-te delivered a video sovereignty address at Eswatini after China's diplomatic pressure forced cancellation of his planned in-person Africa visit.Mon, 27 Apr 2026 00:00:00 GMTdailyhttps://watchboard.dev/taiwan-conflict/#digest-2026-04-26/https://watchboard.dev/taiwan-conflict/#digest-2026-04-26/PLA surged to 28 aircraft sorties on April 26 — a new non-exercise peak surpassing the April 21 24-sortie high and the highest count since Justice Mission-2025 — with 18 of 28 entering Taiwan's northern, central, and southwestern ADIZ simultaneously, and 8 PLAN vessels maintained. This 3.5× single-day escalation from 8 sorties on April 25 marks the acute phase of PLA's pre-Trump-Xi summit pressure campaign, 18 days before the May 14-15 Beijing summit. Taiwan Deputy FM Francois Wu publicly expressed Taipei's deepest fear: 'Most afraid Taiwan will be put on the menu' of the Trump-Xi talks. Taiwan's Han Kuang 42 14-day computer-assisted wargame concluded April 25, testing US-style military rehearsals and incorporating overseas conflict scenarios, with the live-fire phase set for August. The US House FY2027 appropriations bill (April 24) earmarks $500M in Foreign Military Financing for Taiwan.Sun, 26 Apr 2026 00:00:00 GMTdailyhttps://watchboard.dev/taiwan-conflict/#digest-2026-04-25/https://watchboard.dev/taiwan-conflict/#digest-2026-04-25/PLA sorties rebounded to 8 on April 25 — a moderate re-escalation from the 2-sortie post-anniversary lull of April 24 — while 7 PLAN vessels remained stable at the elevated post-Liaoning transit level. Taiwan formalized $6.58 billion in US arms procurement agreements on April 23, including HIMARS and ammunition co-production, locking in production queue placement despite the ongoing NT$1.25T special defense budget deadlock (KMT capping at NT$800B). With 19 days to the Trump-Xi Beijing summit (May 14-15), PLA continues its oscillating pressure cycle — maintaining persistent military presence without a sustained high-sortie campaign that could create pre-summit diplomatic liability. The $14B PAC-3/NASAMS package remains on hold pending the summit.Sat, 25 Apr 2026 00:00:00 GMTdailyhttps://watchboard.dev/taiwan-conflict/#digest-2026-04-24/https://watchboard.dev/taiwan-conflict/#digest-2026-04-24/PLA sorties dropped sharply to 2 on April 24 — a post-anniversary pullback following the 15-sortie Navy 77th anniversary spike of April 23 — but 7 PLAN vessels remain elevated (highest since the Liaoning carrier transit April 20). Taiwan's cross-party defense budget negotiations stalled again, with KMT insisting on NT$800B vs. the cabinet's NT$1.25T, while INDOPACOM Admiral Paparo warned Taiwan legislators they cannot 'starve the chicken' on defense. TSMC shares hit an all-time high after Taiwan relaxed single-stock fund investment caps, and TSMC announced its A13 chip for 2029 volume production. With 20 days to the Trump-Xi Beijing summit, the $14B PAC-3/NASAMS arms package remains on hold.Fri, 24 Apr 2026 00:00:00 GMTdailyhttps://watchboard.dev/taiwan-conflict/#digest-2026-04-23/https://watchboard.dev/taiwan-conflict/#digest-2026-04-23/PLA re-escalated to 15 sorties on April 23 — the PLA Navy's 77th founding anniversary — with 14 of 15 aircraft entering Taiwan's southwestern ADIZ and 5 PLAN vessels plus 1 official ship detected. The anniversary spike disrupts the expected post-peak de-escalation arc (24 sorties Apr 21 → 6 sorties Apr 22 → 15 sorties Apr 23), confirming PLA is running a sustained pre-summit pressure campaign with no stable de-escalation floor 21 days before the Trump-Xi summit (May 14-15). Simultaneously, the PLA Navy conducted record-scale open-ship events in 10+ cities with 40+ active-duty vessels — dual messaging of soft power and military readiness on the Navy's anniversary. April 23 event file created; map-lines updated with the SW ADIZ crossing; KPIs and meta updated to reflect the re-escalation.Thu, 23 Apr 2026 00:00:00 GMTdailyhttps://watchboard.dev/taiwan-conflict/#digest-2026-04-22/https://watchboard.dev/taiwan-conflict/#digest-2026-04-22/PLA sorties dropped to 6 on April 22 (from 24 on April 21), with 4 of 6 crossing the median line into Taiwan's southwestern and eastern ADIZ — a sharp post-spike pullback consistent with established PLA patterns. Simultaneously, PLA Navy Formation 133 passed through Japan's Okinawa islands (Yonaguni-Iriomote Waterway), completing the full Chinese military response arc to JMSDF destroyer Ikazuchi's April 17 Taiwan Strait transit: East China Sea patrols → Western Pacific exercises → Okinawa return passage. With 22 days to the Trump-Xi summit in Beijing (May 14-15), PLA sustains baseline pressure while calibrating against another pre-summit diplomatic liability. The April 22 event file was created; map-lines updated with the ADIZ crossing and PLAN Okinawa passage; KPIs and meta updated to reflect the de-escalation.Wed, 22 Apr 2026 00:00:00 GMTdailyhttps://watchboard.dev/taiwan-conflict/#digest-2026-04-21/https://watchboard.dev/taiwan-conflict/#digest-2026-04-21/PLA aircraft sorties spiked to 24 on April 21 — the highest non-exercise daily count since Justice Mission-2025 in December 2025 — with 11 crossing the median line into Taiwan's northern, southwestern, and eastern ADIZ simultaneously, following the Liaoning (CV-16) carrier transit on April 20 (12 PLAN vessels). The two-day PLA escalation operation unfolds 23 days before the Trump-Xi summit in Beijing (May 14-15), where Xi has reportedly called for 'prudence on US arms sales to Taiwan'; analysts assess Beijing is seeking incremental gains to weaken Taiwan-US ties. Three gap-day event files were created for April 14, 15, and 21; map-lines and KPIs updated to reflect the escalation pattern; claims and political sections updated with summit context.Tue, 21 Apr 2026 00:00:00 GMTdailyhttps://watchboard.dev/taiwan-conflict/#digest-2026-04-20/https://watchboard.dev/taiwan-conflict/#digest-2026-04-20/PLA aircraft carrier Liaoning (CV-16) transited the Taiwan Strait on April 20 with 5 aircraft sorties and 12 PLAN vessels — the highest ship count since the April 11 post-KMT-summit surge — as 4 sorties crossed the median line into Taiwan's SW ADIZ. JMSDF destroyer Ikazuchi made the first Japanese destroyer strait transit under PM Takaichi on April 17, prompting China to label it a 'deliberate provocation' and launch East China Sea 'joint combat readiness patrols' on April 18. Taiwan's legislature broke a 230-day defense budget deadlock on April 16, advancing the NT$1.25T special budget; President Lai inspected Kaohsiung army training command on April 17. Four new event files created covering April 16, 17, 18, and 20; map-lines, map-points, and KPIs updated.Mon, 20 Apr 2026 00:00:00 GMTdailyhttps://watchboard.dev/taiwan-conflict/#digest-2026-04-19/https://watchboard.dev/taiwan-conflict/#digest-2026-04-19/SCMP analysis: PLA is developing stealth drone swarms for boat attacks on Taiwan, detailing new asymmetric naval threat doctrine from the Northern Theater Command.Sun, 19 Apr 2026 00:00:00 GMTbreaking