Analysts Flag Sept 9 Share Unlock as Next Test for SPCX Stock

With SpaceX (Nasdaq: SPCX) closing at $141.50 on August 28, 2026, financial commentators flagged September 9 — the 90th trading day after SpaceX's June 12 IPO — as the next major share-unlock milestone: up to 319 million additional insider shares (the Day-90 tranche, roughly 2.4% of shares outstanding) become eligible to trade, following the same staggered lock-up schedule that released 319M shares on August 20 and roughly 911.5M shares at the August 6 IPO lock-up expiration. Commentators noted SpaceX's unusually restrictive IPO — selling under 5% of outstanding shares — initially created artificial scarcity that helped drive the stock's post-IPO surge, and warned that successive 7%-of-float tranches unlocking through the rest of 2026 (roughly 700M shares in September and 650M in October, per one estimate) could pressure the price as the tradable float steps up toward a projected 66% by December 2026. Bears argue the structure risks 'swamping retail investors' given SpaceX 'isn't particularly close to recurring profits' at current valuations; bulls counter that 75% of the 40 analysts tracked still rate the stock a buy, with a median 12-month price target of $217 (range $75-$800), implying roughly 53% upside from the August 28 close.